Can the oil keep flowing in Edmonton?
The Edmonton Oilers defeated the Pittsburgh Penguins 2-1 on Saturday in a game that was a defensive battle in regulation that morphed into a track meet in overtime. This win gave the Oilers a sparkling 10-4-1 record through 15 games, good for 21 points and tied for first place in the Western Conference. I, like most reasonable people, predicted Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl would, once again, be wasting away another one of their prime years on a team with a subpar supporting cast and leaky goaltending. Of course, this hasn’t been the case so far, and the Oilers have been one of the league’s most surprising teams in the first month of the season. The question on everyone’s mind is: can this team that had such low preseason expectations continue to play such high-quality hockey? It won’t be easy, but I think there’s reason to believe the Oilers are for real.
Any conversation about this team has to start with their two bona fide superstars (McDavid and Draisaitl) and their fringe superstar (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins). These three have been point producing machines for the last few years on teams that has had a severe dearth of talent upfront. That was expected to continue until offseason pickup James Neal revitalized himself in the early part of this season after the nightmare year he had in 2019 with the Other Alberta Team. Neal has been off to a torrid start with 11 goals, including a four goal scoring binge against the Islanders. He and the other three top forwards have combined to form an absolutely lethal powerplay, the team currently ranks second in the league at 28% with the man advantage. The Oilers only trail the similarly stacked-at-the-top Bruins in this department. There’s no reason to think this unit will trail off anytime soon; Edmonton had the 9th ranked power play last season without Neal and, to this point, Neal has shown he’s back to his old ways as a prolific goal scorer.
The dangerous power play appears to be sustainable but what about the team at even strength? That’s a good question because what they’ve done so far probably won’t hold up during the rigors of the NHL regular season. Draisatil and McDavid are currently first and second in the league, respectively, in ice time among forwards. Dave Tippett obviously does not have a lot of faith in his roster as a whole.They’re off to a good start, yes, but Jujar Khaira and Alex Chiasson haven’t become gamebreaking forwards all of a sudden. Instead, the Oilers have been rolling because they have very high end talent at the top and there is nary a time when their top forwards aren’t on the ice.
That’s working for right now but fatigue is going to kick in at some point during the season. Luckily, Dave Tippett is a very savvy coach and his squad’s center depth affords him some deployment options. Right now, Drasaitl and McDavid are cooking together playing mainly with Zack Kassian. An alternative to keep everyone fresh could be to roll McDavid, Drasaitl and RGH, in that order, up the middle. This obviously creates a situation where James Neal is the only truly reliable winger, but he could shift between lines, perhaps even mid-game. McDavid and Drasiatl playing 500 minutes per game together will be this team’s bread and butter, but using their obscene center depth to get creative with lineups could mix things up enough to keep their top players fresh.
Defensively, the Oilers are okay right now and actually poised to get better. Ethan Bear and Darnell Nurse have been a decent tandem at the top, and Oscar Klefbom has been solid (if unspectacular) while getting a ton of minutes on the second pair. When Adam Larsson returns, they’ll have a top-4 that isn’t elite by any standards but certainly good enough to keep them in games. Behind the defense is a goaltender duo that mirrors the good-but-not-great style of the blueline. Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith on their own are low end starters or high end backups. They’ve both shown that, in small bursts, they can be high quality players (particularly Smith who has enjoyed his most career success playing for Tippett). Smith has sported a .931 save percentage while Koskinen has boasted a .922. Both netminders have shown they can perform at these levels consistently when they aren’t called upon to do it for 65 games. They’re presence together will preclude that.
While i think the Oilers have enough going for them to stay in the playoff hunt, their situation is certainly tenuous. A major injury will expose their lack of depth and it’s hard to trust Koskinen and Smith. However, they have some of the most gifted players in the sport leading the charge and that’s enough as long as they are merely competent everywhere else. Their piecemeal defense/goaltending have the making of units that can hold up just enough to let the explosive offense carry them into April.